In order to accumulate water in the mountains to form a lake, it must have the conditions to collect water, and the water has the characteristics of downward flow and evaporation; to collect water, there should be some depressions or hidden places to raise the water, and the water can accumulate without leaking. It can become a lake; otherwise, the water will come and go, and it will be wasted. So if you can find depressions or hidden places, theoretically, you can indirectly prove the possibility of water.
A coin toss is an independent event. If a coin is tossed ten times in a row, and the result of the ten times is “gong”, the chance of the “word” for the eleventh time is still one-half. The eleventh time The result of throwing will not be affected by the previous ten results, but many gamblers hold the opposite opinion. This is the famous “gambler’s fallacy.”
The theory of coin tossing is usually applied to the game of baccarat. Many mathematicians also believe that the result of the banker and player in the front has no effect on the result of the subsequent draw. This is the “mathematician’s fallacy.”
Baccarat is not a completely independent event game, its result is derived from the combination of cards drawn. Although the combination of one-shoe cards or ten-shoe cards is an astronomical number, there are always restrictions on the number of cards, the number of points, and the method of playing cards. The cards that have been played will not be repeated, and the nature is mutual rejection; so the previous ones The result of the draw cannot be completely unrelated to the result of the subsequent draw.
You might say: Many friends who know how to write computer programs have used the programs to test countless boots and come up with the result of “mathematician’s fallacy”?
Yes, because most of them use this model to test: input all kinds of cards, and then compare various combinations of the next “one” to the banker and player ratios; this will inevitably find that the ratio results are two. 1. Therefore, the conclusion must be that “there is no depression in the mountain, so there is no possibility of water.”
These friends also usually come up with the theory of using long cables to get a little profit with a lot of bets. This kind of thinking is like looking for depressions in the distance or at the bottom of the mountain, it is difficult to find their existence; to find depressions, you must travel more and live in the depths of the mountain to find them!
The author is really sorry, I need to call me who I was today to who I was yesterday. Because there was a master “good luck win money” brother in the old Haiyan forum (but I don’t know if he is still lucky). In fact, he has already found a sunken place in the mountain. But because the author was still clinging to the “mathematician’s fallacy” thinking at the time, I have misled some friends in the following post. Now I apologize:
Let’s lead everyone to one of the depressions with the path created by my brother “Good Luck Wins Money”. For example, a betting method such as BBB or PPP as a dead spot is theoretically no difference, because mathematicians say that their chances of appearing are also one in eight.
Now everyone may wish to take a look at the road paper on hand, or use a computer program to test the following two situations:
In the first case, there are four consecutive hands as a unit. If the first one is the banker, the next three hands are used to buy the banker with a three-way cable, that is, chasing and stopping when one wins; the dead spot is PPP.
Another situation is to use four consecutive hands as a unit. If the first one is the banker, the next three will use the three-type cable to chase and buy the idle, that is, chase and stop when one wins; the dead spot is BBB.
Please compare their cable break rates. You will soon discover that even if the dealer’s pumping is excluded, chasing three jumps (free) after the dealer is actually a stupid behavior compared to chasing three companies (the dealer). !
Friends of Weishan Theory, please change your thinking from “the result of the former village and leisure to the result of the latter “one” to “the result of the former village and the result of the latter”; in this way, there will be It may be possible for you to see that there are depressions in the mountains.